Monday, December 12, 2016

Author Confirms American Designs to Counterbalance China

  

By Sajjad Shaukat

During the last two decades, political analysts have been opining that the US which is acting upon a secret strategy, wants to make India the superpower of Asia in order to counterbalance China, while this game was, openly, disclosed by the then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who was on three-day trip to India in 2011.

In this respect, on July 20, 2011, the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged India to be more assertive in Asia, saying that the country should play more of a leadership role. She explained, “India has the potential to positively shape the future of the Asia-Pacific.” Clinton further stated, “India should play a role as a US ally in regional forums such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).” On the other hand, while concealing American double game, She remarked, “New Delhi could also help promote trade links in violence-wracked South Asia, which would bring prosperity and peace to India, Pakistan and Afghanistan…Pakistan must do more to tackle terror groups operating from its territory being used for attacks that destabilize Afghanistan or India.”

During his trip to Australia, on November 17, 2011, President Barrack Obama, while sending an unmistakable message to Beijing said, “The United States is a Pacific power, and we are here to stay.” The then US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta also made statements in this connection during his Asia visit. He revealed during his visit to Singapore that the US will shift a majority of its warships to the Asia-Pacific region by 2020 as part of a new US military strategy in Asia. Panetta’s Asia visit came at a time of renewed tension between China and Philippines, the latter being a major US ally.

With regards to strengthening its position in the Pacific, America has also cultivated security relations with New Zealand. It is also working with several Gulf countries to solidify its entrenchment in the region. American strategic thinkers take China’s military modernization as a great threat to its military bases in the continent.

During American President Barack Obama’s visit to India, on January 25, 2010, the US and India announced a breakthrough on a pact which would allow American companies to supply New Delhi with civilian nuclear technology. On November 2, 2010, US agreed to sell India the most expensive—the new F-35 fighter jets including US F-16 and F-18 fighters, C-17 and C-130 aircraft, radar systems, Harpoon weapons etc. Besides acquisition of arms and weapons from other western countries—especially Israel, America is a potential military supplier to India.

During President Obama’s second visit to India, the US ensured India to permit American companies to supply India with civilian nuclear technology, as agreed upon in 2008.  US President Obama also announced $4 billion of new initiatives aimed at boosting trade and investment ties as well as jobs in India.

However, setting aside the Indian irresponsible record of non-proliferation, and safety of nuclear arms, Washington also pressurized the International Atomic Agency (IAEA) to sign an accord of specific safeguards with India. America had already contacted the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to grant a waiver to India for starting civil nuclear trade on larger scale.

As part of the double game, based in Afghanistan, operatives of American CIA, India RAW and Israeli Mossad which have well-established their secret network in Afghanistan, and are well-penetrated in the terrorist outfits like ISIS, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and their affiliated Taliban groups are using their terrorists to destabilize Tibetan regions of China, Iranian Sistan-Baluchistan and Pakistan’s Balochistan by arranging the subversive activities. In this context, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is their special target. Recent acts of terrorism in Pakistan’s Balochistan are part of the same scheme.   

Undoubtedly, in case of Balochistan, these militant outfits and separatist groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and their affiliated groups, including Jundollah (God’s soldiers) and Lashkar-i-Janghvi which have been creating unrest in the Balochistan get logistic support from RAW and Mossad with the tactical assistance of America. In the recent years, these terrorist outfits massacred many persons through suicide attacks, bomb blasts, targeted killings and sectarian violence. These externally-supported insurgent groups had kidnapped and killed many Chinese and Iranian nationals in Pakistan, including Iranian diplomats. They have claimed responsibility for a number of terror assaults, including those on Shias in Balochsitan and Iranian Sistan-Baluchistan.

Notably, located on the southwestern coast of Pakistan, Balochistan’s Gwadar deep seaport which is the main part of the CPEC is close to the Strait of Hormuz from where more than 17 million barrels of oil passes every day. Its location among South Asia, the oil-rich Middle East, and oil and gas-resourced Central Asia has further increased its strategic significance. Besides, Balochistan’s abundant mineral resources irritate the eyes of the US, India and Israel which intend to weaken Pakistan for their collective aims.

In this context, in his book, titled “The Pivot: Future of American Statecraft in Asia,” published in June 7, 2016, America’s former assistant secretary of state Kurt M. Campbell has confirmed a new major shift in American foreign policy and its interests in Asia, while the US-led entities have already been playing out American foreign policy drama far from the upheaval in the Middle East and South Asia and the hovering drone attacks under the cover of the so-called the war on terror.

After destabilizing the region of the Middle East, the US is making giant strides in Asia Pacific in term of political, economic and military engagement. The main aim of Pivot to Asia Pacific is to counter a rising China, as the Campbell has analyzed.

The main irritant to US/India is “Pak-China Partnership”, particularly the CPEC project. Surprisingly, the book has not given importance to the said project, but it needs no justification that it is the only irritant for US and its lynchpin in Pacific, India to gain larger role in Asia.

The book holds significance for Pakistan, because it is, in fact, premised on the idea to contain Chinese hegemony in the region. The book offers a deep insight into US Asia Pivot policy.
But, by closely analyzing the US policy, there is a need to develop a counter strategy seeking guidance from ten point strategy which the author has recommended for America to implement Asia Pivot in the Pacific region.

Plan for the Pivot is composed of ten core elements including: clarifying the Pivot and mobilizing the public by Presidential speeches and statements as well as an annual strategy documents, articulating a whole-of-government approach to Asia.

While, bolstering and integrating alliances to the American Asia allies, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philipines, Thailand, and Singapore (a quasi ally)—setting the contours of China’s rise by embedding China policy fully within a larger Asia policy framework, building partnership with Taiwan and New Zealand as well as new partners including India, Vietnam, Indonesia—Malaysia and the Pacific island states, embracing economic statecraft through the expansion of free trade agreements and economic interaction, including through the passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), engaging regional institutions, diversifying military forces, promoting democratic values, strengthening people to people ties involving European partners, the heart of author’s argument is a 10-point American strategy for Asia, in which he sets out in considerable details—his recommendations for intensified political, economic and military engagement with the various nations of the continent. But, he ignored the fact that the real game changer in the region will be CPEC which will result in dependence of the US and its allies on Pak-China Gwadar port for sea routes to Asia Pacific.

Given his diplomatic experience, the author is well-informed and deeply thoughtful. He is considered as pioneer of “Asia Pivot Policy”. Campbell’s main emphasis has been on greater boots and greater engagement in the Asia Pacific region without realizing the US role in Middle East and Afghanistan. While, without a stable Middle East, US would not be able to implement the economic aspects of the Pivot, as narrated by Campbell, because the two regions are separated apart by huge distances. A tumultuous and neglected Middle East will not augment well for Asian Century.

While reading Preface and Acknowledgement of the book, it appeared that Indian lobbyists and analysts were quite active in formulation of the Pivot strategy. The author was also assisted by a number of Indians for completion of this book. Campbell—assisted by Indians has suggested to Washington engagement with a number of states which also includes Mongolia and Burma, but there is no mention of Pakistan, which depicts strong Indian influence over the said strategy formulation. Few policymakers in US have termed India as lynchpin of US policies in the Pacific region.

China-Pak project-CPEC is facing challenges, as it is being developed in least stable province of Pakistan. Foregoing in view, the ten-point strategy, crafted in the book may also be relevant to China-Pak for enhancing relevance in the Pacific region, while, Pakistan is likely to counter Asia pivot policy in Asia Pacific.

Although in the book, author has also given some positive suggestions to the US, yet in other words, he has confirmed American designs to counterbalance China in Asia.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com





Friday, December 9, 2016

دہشت گرد داعش اور جسمانی اعضاءکا کاروبار


(ڈاکٹر محمد رضوان)

        انسانوں کا کوئی گروہ طاقت اور دولت کے حصول کے لئے کس حد تک گر سکتا ہے؟ حال ہی میں عراق کے ایک اخبار السمیرا میں ایک دل دھلا دینے والی خبر چھپی ہے جس کے مطابق دہشت گرد تنظیم داعش اپنے ہی جنگجوں کے جسمانی اعضاءنکال کر فروخت کرتی ہے۔ اس رپورٹ کے مطابق عراق کے صوبہ ننویح کے ایک ہسپتال کے میڈیکل یو نٹ کا تعلق داعش سے ہے۔ جہاں دہشت گرد تنظیم داعش سے منسلک اسٹاف نے پچیاسی (۵۸) جنگجوں کے جسمانی اعضاءبشمول گردے وغیرہ نکال لئے۔ اس رپورٹ میں مزید بتایا گیا ہے کہ دہشت گرد تنظیم داعش نے درجنوں عراقی عام شہریوں اور سوشل میڈیا کے ذریعے اِن کے بہلاوے میں آ کر آنے والے مختلف نوجو انوں کے جسمانی اعضاءبھی نکال کر بین الاقوامی سوداگروں کو اچھے داموں فروخت کئے ہیں اور ان کا یہ کاروبار مستقل جاری ہے ۔
        با وسوق ذرائع سے ملنی والی معلومات کے مطابق یہ دہشت گرد، کئی سالوں سے اس جسمانی اعضاءفروشی کے ذریعے حاصل ہونے والی دولت کو اپنی عیاشیوں اور اور دہشت گردی کے لئے استعمال میں لاتے ہیں۔ یہ ملعون جنگل کے اس قانون پر یقین رکھتے ہیں جس کے تحت گوشت خور درندے شکار نہ ملنے سے تنگ آکر اپنے ہی گروہ کے کمزور درندے کو چیر پھاڑ دیتے ہیں اور نوچ نوچ کر کھا جاتے ہیں۔ ان میں شامل ہونے والے نوجوان عورتیں اور مرد جب ان کے پاس پہنچتے ہیں تب جا کر ان پر یہ حقیقت آشکار ہوتی ہے، کہ ان کی باتوں میں آ کر جس جنت کی تلاش میں وہ یہاں پہنچے ہیں ، وہ تو بس سراب تھا، اور یہاں تو بس اندھیرا ہی اندھیرا ہے، ماحول میں بھی اور ماحول میں موجود درندہ صفت دہشتگردوں کی سوچ اور ذہن میں بھی اِن کے کردار میں بھی، اور اِن کی شخصیت میں بھی۔ بس اندھیرا کبھی نہ ختم ہونے والا گھپ اندھیرا۔
        پاکستان اور کئی دوسرے مسلم ممالک کے علاوہ غیر مسلم ممالک میں رہنے والے لوگ بھی اِن کی چکنی چپٹی باتوں کے سحر میں مبتلا ہو کر اِن کے جال میں پھنس جاتے ہیں اور وہ اپنے پیاروں کو چھوڑ کر اِن کی جانب ہجرت کرتے ہیں۔ تا ہم، اِن لوگوں کو پہلی ہی ملاقات میں جنگجوئی کی تربیت کے نام پر ان دہشت گردوں کے سرد مہر چہرے دیکھ کر، انکی کرخت اور کاٹ کھانے والی آواز سن کر، ان کے ہاتھوں سے پڑنے والے گرم گرم تھپڑ اور بھاری جوتوں سے گہرائی تک چوٹ پہنچانے والے ٹھڈے کھا کر یہ سمجھ آتی ہے، کہ انکے لئے جنت کو جانے والا دروازہ دراصل دُنیا میں رہتے ہوئے ہی دوزخ میں کھل گیا ہے۔ پر افسوس صد افسوس، یہ سمجھ آنے تک بہت دیر ہو چکی ہوتی ہے، اور واپسی صرف عبرت ناک موت کی صورت میں ہی ممکن رہتی ہے، کیونکہ جو اِن کی مجرمانہ سوچ کے ساتھ گھل مل جاتے ہیں وہ جنگ یا دہشت گردی کے حملوں میں مارے جاتے ہیں،اور جو کمزور رہتے ہیں، تربیت کی سختی برداشت نہیں کر پاتے یہ اُن کے جسمانی اعضاءایک ایک کر کے نکالتے رہتے ہیں، اور بیچتے رہتے ہیں، پہلے آنکھیں نکال کر بیچتے ہیں، کچھ دِن بعد ایک گردہ، اور پھر دوسرا گردہ ، دل، جگر اور پھیپھڑے وغیرہ۔ آپ ذرا تصور تو کیجئے اس درد کو، جو ایک انسان کو یہ لوگ دیتے ہیں اور وہ بھی اُس انسان کو جو اِن کے لئے سب کچھ چھوڑ کر اِن کے درمیان آگیا ہے، تو کیا عجب ہے کہ یہ دہشتگری کر کے لاشوں کے انبار لگا دیں اور اسکا جشن بھی منائیں۔ مانا دنیا ظالموں سے بھری پڑی ہے، پر یہ تو ظلم و بربریت میں اسرائیل سے بھی دو ہاتھ آگے نکل آئے ہیں۔ آپ یقین کریں یہ لکھتے ہوئے ہی اِن ظالموں کے ظلم کا شکار لوگوں کا در د میرے دل و دماغ اورمیری روح میں گُھس رہا ہے۔ اور یہ سوچ کر تو روح کانپتی ہے کہ یہ لوگ میرے پیارے نبی کے پھیلائے دینِ اسلام کی شکل بگاڑ کر کس طرح با آسانی اپنے ناپاک مقاصد کے حصول کے لئے استعمال میں لا رہے ہیں ۔ اور ہم سب چھپنے کی جگہ ڈھونڈھ رہے ہیں۔ کیا ایسا نہیں ہے؟ کیا آپ کو دہشت گرد تنظیم داعش کے وجود اور کردار میں دراصل دینِ محمدﷺ کو بدنام کرنے اور دینِ اسلام کے خلاف اسلام دشمن قوتوں کی سازش نہیں دکھائی دیتی؟  
         سوشل میڈیا اور دوسرے طریقوں کو بروئے کار لاتے ہوئے، سراب پر مبنی، یہ دہشت گرد ایک جال بچھاتے ہیں جو اتنا بھکا دینے والا ہوتا ہے کہ مالی، سماجی، ذاتی، شناختی اور دوسری کئی طرح کی محرومیوں میں زندگی گزارنے والے مسلمانوں میں سے کچھ لوگ ضرور متاثر ہو جاتے ہیں۔ اور ان کو اپنی موجودہ درپیش پریشانیوں سے نکلنے کا راستہ بہت آسان دکھائی دینے لگتا ہے۔ یعنی صرف ایک بٹن دبا اور سیکنڈز میں جنت کی نا ختم ہونے والی نعمتوں اور کنواری حوروں کے درمیان پہنچ جا۔ یہ سوچ نفسیاتی طور سے کمزور اور کم علم لوگوں کو آگے بڑھ کر داعش کے دہشت گردوں کے ساتھ قدم سے قدم ملانے کے لئے بے تاب کر دیتی ہے۔ اسکے بعد جو ہوتا ہے اسکا کچھ حصہ میں نے پچھلے پیرا میں بیان کیا ہے۔
        اب اس سب کا حل کیا ہے؟ ہم سب بیٹھ کر دیکھتے رہیں کی دینِ محمد ﷺ کے نام کو دہشت گرد استعمال کر رہے ہیں تو کرتے رہیں؟ وہ ہمارے ہی مسلمان بھائیوں کے جسمانی اعضاءنکال کر بیچتے رہیں؟ ہم پر کبھی مسجد، کبھی مجلس، کبھی اسکول، کبھی کالج، کبھی یونیورسٹی، اور جہاں اُن کا دل چاہے بم پھاڑیں؟ اور ہم فرقوں میں بٹ کر بس ایک دوسرے سے لڑتے رہیں؟ کبھی نسل کے نام پر لڑیں؟ کبھی سیاست دانوں کے کہنے پر لڑیں؟ بس لڑتے رہیں؟ اور کوئی بہت حد ہو جائے تو اللہ سے دعا کرتے رہیں کہ اسلام دشمن طاقتوں کو تباہ کر دے؟ بے شک دعا کرنا ایک اچھا عمل ہے، مگر ساتھ ساتھ تدابیر بھی کرنا ہونگی، تا کہ اللہ تعالی برکت ڈالیں۔

ہم سب کو آنکھیں کھولنا ہونگی، کان کھولنا ہونگے اور اپنے اپنے حصے کی ذمہ داری اٹھا کر اپنے آپ کو تعلیم، کاروبار، انصاف اور ہر شعبہ زندگی میں مثبت کردار اور جذبہ ایمانی کے ساتھ آگے بڑھانا ہوگا اور ملک و قوم کی ترقی کے لئے بڑھ چڑھ کر حصہ لینا ہوگا۔ تا کہ ہم پاکستانی ہر اعتبار سے مظبوط ہو جائیں اور پھر ہر دوسرے انسان کو اپنے کردار سے کے ذریعے تبدیلی کا سبق دیں نہ کہ زبان ، ہاتھ یا ہتھیار سے۔  

ٹرمپ نے بھی مان لیا کہ پاکستانی قوم بہت ذہین ہے


(ڈاکٹر محمد رضوان)

      حال ہی میں منتخب امریکی صدر ڈونلڈ ٹرمپ نے وزیرِ اعظم پاکستان میاں محمد نواز شریف سے چند روز پہلے ہونے والی گفتگو کے دوران پاکستانیوں کے بارے میں اپنے خیالات کا اظہار کرتے ہوئے کہا کہ پاکستان ایک عظیم قوم ہے اور یہاں رہنے والے لوگ بہت ذہین اور سمجھدار ہیں۔ ٹرمپ کے اس بیان نے ساری دنیا کو حیرت میں ڈال دیا اور خاص طور پر مودی سرکار کے سر پر تو جیسے ایٹم بمب پھاڑ دیا۔ کیونکہ ڈونلڈ ٹرمپ کے منہ سے پاکستانی عوام کے بارے میں تعریفی کلمات سننے کی نہ تو مودی سرکار توقع رکھتی تھی اور نہ ہی یہ ان کے لئے قابلِ ہضم ہے، تو سمجھ لی جیئے کہ تشویش کی شدت کے باعث مودی سرکار، انکی کابینہ اور اس کے چاہنے والے آج کل تمام ٹیلفونک گفتگو رفاءحاجت کے با کثرت دبا کی وجہ سے حاجت خانے میں ہی فرما رہے ہونگے۔ اس میں کچھ عجب بھی نہیں ہے، کہ شدتِ سے تشویش کا لاحق ہونا اس طرح کی صورتِ حال کا باعث بنتا ہی ہے۔ بہت ممکن ہے کہ انڈیا میں اب معدے کے معالجوں کی مانگ میں شدت سے اضافہ دیکھنے کو ملے۔ اور متعلقہ ادویات بھی مانگ میں تباہ کُن اضافے کی وجہ سے اضافی قیمت میں فروخت کی جائیں۔ اس بات کو اگر مدِ نظر رکھتے ہوئے ہمارے ایک شرارتی دوست چٹکلہ چھوڑا کہ ٹرمپ کیونکہ بہت بڑے بزنس مین ہیں تو بہت ممکن ہے کہ انکا یہ بیان انڈیا میں معدہ کے علاج کی ادویات بنانے والی کمپنیوں سے کوئی خاص پرسنٹیج پر الحاق ہونے کے باعث دیا گیا ہو، اس طرح ٹرمپ صرف انڈیا سے ملنے والے اس بزنس کی بنیاد پر الیکشن میں لگی رقم حلف اُٹھانے سے پہلے ہی وصول کر لیں گے۔ بات تو پتے کی کہی صاحب نے، پر ہم حقیقت کا پرچار کرنے پر زور ڈالنا چاہتے ہیں اس لئے بس یہی کہیں گے کے ڈونلڈ ٹرمپ کا یہ بیان صرف اور صرف انکی تحقیق کی بنیاد پر ہے، جو اس حقیقت کو آشکار کرنے کے لئے کی گئی کہ پاکستانی قوم کی ذہنی صلاحیتیں کیسی ہیں، اور تحقیق کے نتائج نے ثابت کر دیا کہ پاکستان ایک ذہین قوم ہے، اور یہ حقیقت آخر ماننا ہی ہوگی، تو پھر دیر نہ کی جائے اور شروع میں ہی مان لیا جائے۔
      میرے پیارے پاکستانیوں، ڈونلڈ ٹرمپ کیا مانتے اور کیا کہتے ہیں، اور اسکے بھارتی سرکار پر کس طرح کے اثرات ہوتے ہیں سے کہیں گنا زیادہ یہ سمجھنا ضروری ہے کہ ہم پاکستانی اپنے بارے میں کیا سوچتے ہیں، اور جو ہم سوچتے ہیں اس میں مثبت پہلو کو کتنی جگہ دیتے ہیں اور اگر مثبت پہلو کو بھی دیکھ لیتے ہیں، تو اسکا اطلاق اپنے ہی رویوں پر کرتے ہیں یا دوسرے پاکستانی بہن بھائیوں کے رویوں پر کرنا چاہتے ہیں، اور اگر آئیڈیلی ہم مثبت سوچ بھی لیتے ہیں، اور اسکا اطلاق سب سے پہلے اپنے ہی رویوں پر کرتے ہیں نہ کہ دوسروں کو نصیحتیں کرنے پر لگائیں، تو کیا یہ اطلاق آج سے ہی کرنا چاہتے ہیں یا کل کریں گے، یا پھر کبھی کریں گے، یا فرصت ملے گی تب کریں گے۔ ایسے ہی بہت سے سوالات ہیں، جن کا ہمیں جواب ڈھونڈ ھنا چاہئے۔ تا کہ ہم اپنے معاشرے کو کم از کم ایک ذمہ دار شہری مہیا کر دیں، اور آپ یقین کریں، آپ کا کردار آپکو رول ماڈل کا درجہ دلوا سکتا ہے، اور اچھے اخلاق اور کردار کی وجہ سے آپ کی دنیا اور آخرت دونوں سنور سکتی ہیں۔ اوہ ہو۔۔میں ذرا سنجیدہ بات کر گیا! پر ہمیں اب سنجیدہ ہو ہی جانا چاہئے۔
ڈونلڈ ٹرمپ کی بات بلکل درست ہے کہ ہم پاکستانی، ایک ذہین قوم ہیں۔ ساتھ ڈونلڈ ٹرمپ ایک اور حقیقت بیان کی کہ پاکستانی سرزمین وسائل اور اور مواقوں سے لبریز ہے۔ اگر ان دونوں باتوں کو ایک صفحے پر رکھا جائے، یعنی ذہین قوم وسائل سے مالا مال دھرتی پر ٹھنڈی سانس لیتی ہے، اس دھرتی کے رنگوں سے اپنی آنکھوں کو سکون پہنچاتی ہے، اس دھرتی کے چرند پرند کی آوازوں کے سروں کی مستی سے مسکراتی ہے، خوش رنگ پھول اور انکی سانسوں کو معطر کرنے والی بھینی بھینی خوشبوں سے آنکھوں اور سینے میں ٹھنڈک پہنچاتی ہے، یہاں کی ٹھنڈی ٹھنڈی ہوا ں میں اپنے پسینے کو سوکھاتی ہے اور اللہ کی عنایت کردہ ہر نعمت سے سے لطف انداز ہوتی ہے، یقین کیجئے اللہ کی یہ سب عنایتیں دنیا میں بہت قوموں کو میسر ہیں۔ ایسے میں دل سے کیوں نہیں نکلے گا۔ پاکستان زندہ باد! پاکستان زندہ باد! پاکستان زندہ باد!
      بس کمی اس بات کی ہے، کہ ہم سب اپنی ذہانت کو درست طرح استعمال میں نہیں لا رہے ہیں، اور سازشی عناصروں کی باتوں میں آکر، اپنے ملک، اپنے شہر، اپنے محلے، اپنی گلی، اپنے گھر اور سب سے اہم اپنے بچوں کے بہترین مستقبل کے لئے اپنا پسینہ نہیں بہا نے سے گریز کر رہے ہیں۔ اور دشمن اس موقع سے فائدہ اُٹھا کر ہم سے ہمارا ہی خون بہانے کی کامیاب شازششیں کر رہا ہے۔ ہمیں بہت محنت کرنا ہوگی، بہت زیادہ، تب جا کر ہم اپنی آنے والی نسل کے بھی ہیرو ہونگے، اللہ کی عطا کردہ اس ذہانت کا حق بھی ادا کر دیں گے۔ اللہ تعالی ہمارے نیک کاموں کے لئے اٹھتے قدموں کو کامیابی سے ہمکنار کرے اور اس کامیابی میں ہر اگلے دن مزید برکتیں شامل کرے۔ آمین ! 


Rumiyah II: Frustrated DAISH Turns in Communication and Tactics

(Syed Saqib Ali Shah)

The use of propaganda in conflicts is nothing revolutionary, however what differentiates contemporary extremist propaganda from previous forms is the method of communication.  DAISH has switched away from Dabiq in favor of an easier to read, less theological online magazine Rumiyah. The issue of its magazine is part of the group’s sophisticated propaganda efforts to disseminate their message around the world in as many languages as possible using the internet. With the release of Rumiyah’s second issue, it is increasingly clear that so-called DAISH’s failed propaganda efforts have strategically shifted, characterised by two key trends. First, DAISH’s propaganda machine is under immense pressure evidenced by, for example, the killing of key figures such as Abu Muhammad Al-Adnani and Wa’il Al-Fayad, the repercussions of which can be seen in lower rates of propaganda output and the prominence of rehashed material in that messaging. Second, the key themes in its propaganda have been altered in ways that reflect both its contracting campaign and the need to recalibrate its messaging in accordance with declining fortunes on the ground.
It contains detailed graphic information about carrying out terror attacks including how to choose victims, how to kill them and when and where to strike. Some of the articles about slaughtering non-believers referred to as ‘kafir’ or ‘kuffar’ are illustrated with images of beheaded men, weapons and a child with a gun. The general principles of Islam when fighting is permitted is clear as Quran states, “Allah forbids you not regarding those who have not fought against you in religion and expelled you not from your homes, that you may show favour to them and act justly towards them. Undoubtedly, the just are loved by Allah”. (Surah Al-Mumtahana: 8)There is no compulsion in religion; no doubt the virtuous path has become clearly distinct from the erring; then who so does not accept devil and believes in Allah, he grasped a very firm knot which is never to open and Allah Hears and Knows. (Surah Al-Baqara: 256)
In second issue the readers are offered a discussion on the psychological and practical problems one might run into before conducting a “just terror attack”. Promoting the knife as the weapon of choice, the reader is presented concocted religious guidance aimed at legitimizing the tactic as well as a practical discussion on pros and cons of different types of knives. Moreover, this article replaced the term “lone wolf” with “just terror operations” reflecting the importance of semantics in a propaganda war and the need for DAISH to frame such actions as inherently legitimate and morally justified as DAISH has used “just terror” before in Dabiq Issue 12. This message has further reinforced by the article “Brutality and Severity Towards the Kuffar” which inundates the reader with examples of the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) and the Sahabah (R.A), punishing their enemies. On the contrary, in Madina the people of other faiths were protected from harm as much as the Muslims. In the Muslim society the lives of the practitioners of other religions were also given protective status.  As the Prophet (PBUH) said, “whoever kills a person who has a truce with the Muslims will never smell the fragrance of Paradise” (Saheeh Muslim). The actual teachings of Islam clearly state about infidels that if the government state gives them shelter, then they have right to enjoy the freedom and follow their religion. They are bound to pay the taxes which are alternative of zakah.
The editorial “A message from East Africa” includes instructions for followers to “hurl themselves into the midst of the battle by attacking the (disbeliever) nearest to them”. “Let them follow the example of the lions who have preceded them by striking the crusader citizens and interests wherever they are found in the West,” it reads. The report attributes jehad with the sunnah as it says sunnah of the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) was to march forth and wage war against the enemies of Allah. The report provoking the Muslims to kill those living in west by saying, those Muslims residing in the west have an opportunity to terrorize the Crusaders themselves. Therefore, the Prophet (PBUH) was only a Warner not and enforcer. Quran states that “Say you, the knowledge of it is with Allah, and I am only a clear Warner”. (Al-Mulk :26). If non-believers live in a country which is democratic state with specific rules and regulations then they are entitled to live their life peacefully there and no one has the right to impose anything else on them. Islam respects the followers of others religion as Quran asks just to turn away from those who reject the truth, and say “peace” to them. “And by the saying of the Messenger, O My Lord, they do not believe. Therefore overlook them and say, peace: soon they shall l know”. (Az-Zukhraf :88,89).  
To further reinforce their point, Rumiyah’s architects have DAISH’s “boom-bust” history to draw upon for inspirational examples of staying true to the cause in the face of losses. A leader of DAISH’s antecedent, Abu Hamzah Al-Muhajir’s “Paths to Victory Part 1” argues along these lines not only stating that “every Muslim must be certain that complete victory is coming” but asserts that “whoever rejects or doubts that is nothing but one of the disbelieving fear mongers.  According to the extremist approach of the report, the difference between them and the non-Muslims is that those of them who accepted Islam received much good, honor, and glory. And those of them who remained in kufr were afflicted with humiliation, subservience, and the jizyah. However, Islam is a religion of peace, in the times of Islamic glory, Muslims and non-Muslims used to live together in peace and harmony. Quran states, “Call to the way of your Lord with wisdom and good admonition and argue with them in a way that is best. No doubt. Your Lord knows well who has strayed from His way and He knows well those who are guided”. (An-Nahl :125). There have come to you the eye opener arguments from your Lord, then whosoever saw it, then it is for his own good and whosoever became blind, then it is for his own bad and I am not a guardian over you. (Al-An’am:104).
The Shuhada from the Gulshan Attack, is an article in which DAISH explains why the cafe in Dhaka was selected as a target. In the report it is written that after a careful survey of several potential targets, the Crusader-owned Holey Artisan Bakery restaurant was selected for this blessed operation because it was well known for being frequented by the citizens of Crusader countries and other kafir nations. Whereas, Islam respects the followers of others religion, in fact when Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) migrated to Medina, he found that there was a large Jewish community but that did not bother Him. He did not contemplate on forcing them into the Fold of Islam, instead, he made a peace truce with them and called them (Ahlul kitab), the people of the Scripture. Diversity of faith and culture is an oft-repeated theme in the Quran. Allah Almighty’s plan has granted freedom of choice to humankind, the only justification for ultimate individual accountability, so always there would be unbelievers intermixed with believers. “And if your Lord had willed, all those who are in the earth would have believed together. Will you, then force people until they become Muslims? And no soul has power to believe but by the leave of Allah. And He lays His torment upon those who have no wisdom”. (Surah Yunus :99-100).
Rumiyah’s architects have sought to deploy the strategies of meaning, credibility and behavioural change that have helped to inspire many in the West to become foreign fighters or engage in homegrown terrorism. The relentless output of propaganda by DAISH and its focus on reaching every corner of the globe with its malicious message is a critical part of the DAISH's tragic strategy. They want to delude Muslims by controlling the phony narrative of Islam and Jihad and provoking the West into a backlash against Muslims, thus driving them to look to the DAISH as protectors. By understanding what they are really saying and what they really want people will be better equipped to deconstruct their foraged narrative and ultimately defeat not just DAISH but radical approach in general. 
The writer can be contacted at email



Thursday, December 8, 2016

India Failed in Diverting Attention from Kashmir

By Sajjad Shaukat

Although by arranging various false flag operations like the attacks on Indian Parliament in January 12, 2001, in Mumbai attacks on November 26, 2008, at Indian Air Force Base in Pathankot on January 2, 2016 etc., India succeeded in deflecting attention of the world from the uprising in the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) due to the US-led West’s double standard, yet Indian rulers have failed in diverting the attention of the international community from the drastic situation of Kashmir in the aftermath of the Uri base assault which was also managed by the Indian intelligence agencies, especially RAW.

It is notable that on July 19, 2013, the Indian former home ministry and ex-investigating officer Satish Verma disclosed that terror attacks in Mumbai in November 26, 2008 and assault on Indian Parliament in January 12, 2001 were carried out by the Indian government to strengthen anti-terrorism laws.

However, continuing false flag operations, on Setember18, this year, India staged the drama of the terror attack in the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) at a military base in Uri, close to the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan.

After the Uri episode, without any investigation, India’s top civil and military officials, including their media started propaganda against Pakistan by accusing that the militants who targeted the Uri base came from Pakistan’s side of Azad Kashmir and the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba controlled by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) were involved in it. Under the mask of the Uri base attack, India created war-hysteria against Pakistan and started mobilization of troops near the LoC, while claiming surgical strikes on the Azad Kashmir.

But, the myth of Indian surgical strikes was exposed, when in a statement, DG of Pakistan’s the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) Lt. Gen, Asim Saleem Bajwa said, “The notion of surgical strike linked to alleged terrorists bases is an illusion being deliberately generated by India to create false effects. This quest by Indian establishment to create media hype by rebranding cross border fire as surgical strike is a fabrication of truth.” He repeatedly stated that Pakistani troops have been giving equal response to Indian unprovoked firing across the LoC.

Differences also arose between the Indian civil and military leadership—as to how cover the falsehood. In this regard, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and country’s Army Chief Gen. Dalbir Singh had decided to prepare a ‘fake video’ of surgical strikes so as to pacify the Indian public, media and the opposition parties.

In fact, since July 8, 2016 against the martyrdom of the young Kashmir leader Burhan Wani by the Indian security forces in the Indian Held Kashmir in wake of continued sieges and prolonged curfew, Indian forces have martyred more than 120 innocent persons who have been protesting against the martyrdom of Burhan Wani.

With the acceleration of war of liberation and Indian state terrorism in the Indian controlled Kashmir, pressure on the Indian government led by BJP has been mounting both domestically and internationally.

In this respect, A. S. Dulat, former chief of India’s spy agency RAW, published in the magazine, ‘The Wire’ on August 27, 2016 said “Pakistan’s role is not the only catalyst for the crisis, talks about the need for the Indian government to start talking to separatist leaders in the Hurriyat Conference, Pakistan, and other important political players.” His condemnation of the Modi government for not talking to Hurriyat and for its high handedness in IOK is spot on. He rightly concludes that the Kashmiri uprising is 100% indigenous.

While, in response to the letter of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, on August 19, 2016, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon deplored the killings of the Kashmiris in Indian-held Kashmir, and urged India and Pakistan to settle Kashmir and other issues through dialogue by offering his “good offices”.

Meanwhile, on September 21, 2016, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif emphatically highlighted Kashmir situation during the annual session of the UN General Assembly. In this context, he said, “Kashmiris had to face barbarism from India, which made Burhan Wani, the face of freedom movement…Pakistan fully supports the demand of the Kashmiri people for self-determination, as promised by several Security Council resolutions. Their struggle is a legitimate one for liberation from alien occupation.”

During his visit to Pakistan, in the joint press conference with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on November 17, 2016, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged for an immediate resolution of the Kashmir dispute and stated that “the escalating tensions on the Pakistan-India border and the atrocities in Kashmir cannot be ignored. He elaborated, “The Turkish government and the Turkish nation stand in solidarity with the Kashmiri people.”

Earlier, the visiting Secretary General of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) Ayad Ameen Madani in Islamabad expressed grave concern over extra-judicial killings of people in the Indian-occupied Kashmir and added, “OIC will support Pakistan on Kashmir issue”.

Besides, Western politicians and media have also taken serious notice of the deteriorating situation of Kashmir. For instance, the Italian Minister for Defence, Mrs. Roberta Pinotti who visited Pakistan said September 19, this year that her country “opposes use of force and lethal weapons against peaceful protestors in Kashmir and stated that it cannot be allowed to go on.” She further said that Italy will apprise the international community about what is going on in Indian held Kashmir.

Renowned TV channels and newspapers are giving appropriate coverage to the ongoing uprising in Kashmir, while pointing out Indian atrocities. For example, with the title, “India’s crackdown in Kashmir: is this the world’s first mass blinding?”, The Guardian wrote on November 8, 2016,  “The Long Read: A bloody summer of protest in Kashmir has been met with a ruthless response from Indian security forces, who fired hundreds of thousands of metal pellets into crowds of civilians, leaving hundreds blinded.”
Notably, in frustration, during the sixth Heart of Asia Conference which was held in the Indian city of Amritsar on December 3 and 4, this year, the Indian government did not allow the Pakistan’s Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz to hold a scheduled press conference. In sheer violation of diplomatic norms, the adviser was also barred from leaving the hotel premises and the media persons were not allowed to meet him in the hotel. The Indian authorities also stopped Pakistan’s High Commissioner to India Abdul Basit to enter the Media Centre set up at the conference venue.

Nevertheless, Kashmir dispute has been internationalized, while India has failed in diverting world’s attention from the present situation of Kashmir.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com







Economic and political risks of India’s demonetization



CANBERRA – On Nov. 8, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that 500- and 1,000-rupee notes (1,000 rupees is about $15) were no longer legal tender; people were given 50 days to deposit them in bank accounts or exchange them for new notes at banks and post offices — when only half of Indian adults have bank accounts. Beyond a fairly low threshold (under $4,000), people will be required to explain the source of their cash holdings.
Disruptive technology can unleash creative forces through destructive impact on an industry that exists in a stable equilibrium of vested interests. Will the world’s fastest growing big economy show similar resilience and regeneration from deep shock therapy, or will demonetization cure the disease but kill the patient? By withdrawing 86 percent of circulating currency when 70 to 80 percent of transactions are cash-based, has the Indian government burned down its economic house in order to eradicate the pest of corruption?
All previous instances of large-scale overnight currency cancellations were in countries ravaged by hyperinflation or facing state or economic collapse. Such shock therapy in a major economy is without precedent, so no one can predict the long-term structural impact and the full range of intended, pernicious and perverse consequences.
The goal is to eradicate black money, counter tax evasion and destroy counterfeit currency. In most large economies, cash is around 5 percent of GDP; in India it is 12 to 14 percent. Fewer than one-third of Indians have access to financial institutions. While most banks are concentrated in cities, most Indians live in villages. Forcing businesses to use banks and digital payments will help to bring them inside the tax net.
Only 5 percent of Indian workers pay income tax, just 15 percent of the economy is inside the tax net and India’s tax to GDP ratio at 17 percent is 5 points lower than comparable countries. Because of high property taxes, for example, buyers collude with sellers to understate the sale value and split the tax difference. This explains why the policy is an attack on the Indian way of doing business: Much of India’s cash-based consumer transactions have ground to a halt.
Yet it will do little to flush out significant proportions of illicit wealth. Former Finance Minister P. Chidambaram is right: In practice it amounts more to demonization of cash than demonetization of currency. It is shockingly callous in its indifference to the distributional consequences. The ATM networks have been hit by total chaos, while the central bank struggles to print replacement currency. Almost 50 deaths have been reported among people forming long lines at banks. Has a single parliamentarian, let alone Cabinet minister, stood in line to exchange currency notes? The rich have engaged “mules” to line up and exchange their currency for them while the “common man” faces hardships in the daily purchases of food, medicine, bus and rail tickets, and so forth.
Consumer goods sales are reported to have dropped by one-third. Trucks are at a standstill. Farmers have difficulty buying seeds and fertilizer and selling crops and perishable produce. The fishing industry is close to collapse. Few villages have ATMs and having to trek into cities and wait in line for hours means the loss of daily wages — as it does for the rickshaw drivers, street vendors, domestic workers and daily laborers in the cities. The construction industry has been badly hit with significant wage implications for its casual workforce.
While the poor keep their money in cash, the rich park illicit wealth in Indian and overseas real estate, shell companies, shares, gold and overseas bank accounts. Only 5 to 6 percent of India’s illicit wealth is estimated to be held in cash components. Demonetization attacks the stock without touching the flow of black money. Cumulative illicit outflows from developing to developed countries increased from $369 billion in 2000 to $1.26 trillion in 2008. In the 10-year period from 2004 to 2013, the developing world as a whole lost $7.8 trillion. India has experienced the third-highest illicit capital outflow ($83 billion in 2013) after China ($259 billion) and Russia ($120 billion). Yet India’s tax authorities have been among the least aggressive in going after names leaked in the Panama Papers in April.
The move also confuses the black with the informal economy by conflating cash with black money. Demonetization has the potential to permanently damage the latter, which comprises 45 percent of GDP and 80 percent of the workforce. Its main motor is the desire to escape the crushing burden of state taxes, regulations and bureaucracy. India’s formal and informal economies are not quarantined from each other, but form a seamless value chain. For example, almost one-third of the working capital of small businesses comes from the black economy. Can that lost capital be replenished with fresh credit?
The policy also highlights several pathologies of India’s governance. It buttresses the power of economically illiterate politicians and heavy-handed bureaucrats to control a large economy. Few citizens have encountered the tax inspector as a paragon of efficiency and probity. Forcing people to stand in line for unending hours and answer humiliating questions is an attack on property rights that puts restrictions on the people’s ability to earn, access and use money.
A better solution would have been to shift the balance of economic decision-making away from the state to firms and consumers; simplify, rationalize and reduce taxes; cut regulations and curtail officials’ discretionary powers; eliminate loopholes; and widen the tax net.
A major cause for the persistence of poverty and the growth of corruption in India is regulators and tax inspectors who harass entrepreneurs at every rung of economic activity because of the maze of regulations and the thickets of red tape. Shock therapy without institutional transformation enlarges government while minimizing governance; more government equals more corruption. Demonetization cements the Indian government’s reputation for capricious and arbitrary economic actions.
Politically, the decision has reinforced Modi’s image as a strong and decisive leader prepared to take bold and tough decisions in the country’s interests. It could denude political rivals of substantial cash assets for fighting the forthcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state.
On the political downside, it has hit the lavish expenditure wedding season. The ruling party’s main political base includes wholesale and retail traders who deal largely in cash. Their businesses have been gutted. How many marginal small businesses will survive the loss of a week’s or fortnight’s sales and income?
Foreign tourists were caught unawares and most simply do not have the time or patience to stand in line for long hours for minor sums of money. A substantial proportion of the 25-million-strong Indian diaspora is likely to have $100 to $300 in the high-denomination rupees as convenient small change on arrival in India. For these groups the shock therapy amounts to a minor inconvenience rather than a major hardship. But several million mildly irritated people among a country’s most likely overseas goodwill ambassadors is not to be disregarded.
Another governance pathology is the failure to tell friends from foes and a stubborn refusal to listen to contrarian voices from people of goodwill with the requisite expertise. Instead the government’s default mode is to attack any criticism as somehow anti-national or pro-corruption.


India's Demonetization Could Be The First Cash Domino To Fall

Patrick W. Watson ,
Just recently, millions of Americans voted against Hillary Clintonbecause, among other reasons, we thought she would raise taxes or otherwise take our money.
Most of us didn’t notice what happened on the other side of the world that very same day. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi really didtake everyone’s money.
Citizens of India learned, with only a few hours’ notice, that their 500 and 1,000-rupee notes were no longer legal tender. Those are—or were—the country’s largest-denomination bills and the foundation of a huge underground economy.
Now they’re just paper.
The results were what you would expect: confusion, chaos, and fear.
Nevertheless, you can bet other governments watched closely. India could be just the first cash domino to fall.



By embracing India's anti-Pakistan policy, Kabul risks peace in Afghanistan



By Naveed Ahmad
Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani played in the hands of his host at Amritsar; he lambasted Pakistan, he attacked the country. Alas, Kabul’s dilemma has never been lack of wealth but dearth of statesmen; thus the man from the Heart of Asia spoke India’s mind.
For the Karzais, Ghanis and Abdullahs of Afghanistan, the country is a podium and a goldmine. For much of the Afghan politicians and their Indian patrons, Afghan history is either 5000 years old or began right with the events of 9/11. Where were these politicians when the Soviets backed by India launched a full-scale occupation using every resource from brute air power to deadly land forces?
Ashraf Ghani left Afghanistan in 1977 for Denmark and eventually the US. The man returned to Kabul in December 2001 to become Hamid Karzai’s top financial advisor. Mariam Ghani, the Afghan president’s daughter, still resides in the US, her birthplace. She occasionally visits Kabul, perhaps to keep connections and funding alive for her activism. His son, Tarek Ghani is a postdoctoral fellow at the Woodrow Wilson School at the Princeton University.
Dr Abdullah Abdullah remained conveniently aligned with Kabul’s puppet regime albeit for a brief period of one year – 1985 to 1986 – when he moved to Peshawar and worked in a hospital. Come early 1990s, he became the right-hand of fellow Tajik warlord Ahmad Shah Masud. He survived in Kabul’s power circles till 1996 when Taliban took over the Afghan capital. Abdullah held the foreign ministry portfolio from 2001 to 2005. According to Anis Daily newspaper, Abdullah’s wife Fakhria lives in India with her four school-going children.
Both the leaders at the helm have little idea of the suffering an average Afghan withstood during the Soviet invasion, Taliban’s takeover and the suffering endured under the NATO. Like Modi, their best bet seems changing geography by adversely and irreparably damaging Pakistan. The Indian leaders’ perverse ambition aims at bringing ever more chaos along Afghanistan’s bordering regions than any respite from its own volcanic faultlines. Islamabad, meanwhile, has corrected its course by not only essentially eliminating Taliban and al-Qaeda sanctuaries in its tribal regions and elsewhere but also ensuring improved surveillance and management of its western border, which remain overwhelmingly un-secured from the Afghan side. As much as Pakistan did, it did so to deny militant movement into the war-ravaged country but also to secure its own territory of foreign proxies and miscreants. For Pakistan’s security and development, a peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan is undoubtedly a key pre-requisite.
How far has Afghanistan come since Bonn conference in 2002 when the comity of nations began the process of facilitating its transition from pariah to a mainstream nation-state? The challenge faced then still confronts the world. What can be done for the land-locked, tribally and racially-divided country?
Taliban are resurging, not along the Pakistan-bordering eastern provinces but in the centre, the north and the west. The Afghan troops and police have failed to stem desertions. The tribal elders are refusing to pay state taxes and embrace mainstream economy. Pakistan has nothing to do with the dares listed above. Yet, Ghani and Abdullah prefer travelling more often to the foreign capitals than their country’s provincial headquarters.
Embracing India’s clandestine foreign policy goals of disrupting peace in Balochistan and branding Pakistan as a terrorist state risk peace and development in Afghanistan whose citizens are no less desperate to escape to Europe than the displaced Syrians and Yemenis. The Afghans won’t have the luxury of foreign financial assistance as enjoyed since 2001 for the donor fatigue is only worsening with mounting humanitarian crises in the Middle East and North Africa. Certainly, the Heart of Asia offers Afghanistan last firm prospect to get the best of friendly assistance in realms of security, reconstruction and development. Unless Afghans place a true statesman at the helm in Kabul, Ajit Doval – Modi’s National Security Advisor – may realise his alleged dream to “fight Pakistan to the last Afghan”.
Naveed Ahmad is a Pakistani investigative journalist and academic with extensive reporting experience in the Middle East and North Africa. He is based in Doha and Istanbul. He tweets @naveed360


India's demonetisation: Have policymakers lost their minds?


By Danish Hyder / Mushtaq Khan

The media’s negative assessment of Modi’s decision to demonetise misses the point.
Glancing through the many articles that cover India’s November 8 surprise decision to demonetise the rupee 500 and 1,000 notes, one would have to concede this was an unprovoked policy blunder. Having been hailed as the fastest growing economy in the world (which is now facing global uncertainty created by Brexit and US President-elect Donald Trump), why would India impose this ordeal on the average Indian, now?
CNN regularly covers the long lines outside banks and ATM machines — the despair of lower and middle-class Indians who are unable to buy medicine; the alleged death toll linked to this issue; and waivers granted to toll-booth operators and farmers to ensure that India’s economy does not come to a grinding halt. The shock announcement and apparent lack of preparation suggests that India’s policymakers may have momentarily lost their collective minds.
The government almost seems intent on testing Indians to their limits: be it by limiting how much cash an individual can change in a day' or how much an account holder can withdraw on a daily or weekly basis' or the embarrassingly large number of non-operational ATMs.
Media outlets and commentators seem to unanimously claim that India’s demonetisation decision was unwise. Furthermore, the political storm unleashed suggests that this policy decision (or mistake) could prove to be Modi’s last.
Intent versus implementation
Media coverage makes two things very clear: demonetising has been poorly implemented, but the intent to target the fat cats (with ill-gotten gains) is widely applauded. There is a sense that even though this decision has angered many Indians, the fact that it has black marketeers panicking (and possibly losing hundreds of millions of dollars), is almost pleasing to everyone in India.
Media outlets and commentators seem to unanimously claim that India’s demonetisation decision was unwise.
It is increasingly clear that the vast majority of Indians are not that interested in going cashless;,rather they are energized by the prospect that the government has promised to catch and penalize the fat-cats. Since this appears to be the real motivation for their support, the manner in which Modi’s government handles people who declare their black money will determine how this political gamble plays out.
Who holds cash?
The short answer is everybody.
But for a central banker, if the cash holdings of an average Indian are far in excess of what he/she needs to buy weekly groceries, or pay utility bills, or for the one-off meal at a local restaurant, then there is a problem.
There are striking similarities between Pakistan and India — especially in terms of the attitude towards documenting commercial activity, paying taxes and hoarding cash. According to the State Bank of Pakistan, as of the end of December 2015, Pakistan’s cash holding as a percentage of total money supply was 21 per cent compared to India’s 8 per cent; Bangladesh stands at 10 per cent, and Sweden is at an almost cashless 2.6 per cent. Yet, India moved first.
In our view, what is happening in India may be instructive for Pakistan.
Some people intentionally hold cash balances, while many simply hold cash because they see no viable alternative. Let’s first focus on the latter: (1) the widow who has never had a bank account – this continues across generations; (2) small farmers who really don’t know any better; (3) shopkeepers who sell primarily for cash; (4) large wholesalers (cotton, wheat, agriculture produce, gold traders, rural middle-men etc.); and (5) the poor and lower-middle class who keep cash balances in case of emergencies.
Then there are those who must deal in cash because their underlying business is either illegal, or the source of money is bribery or corruption. More specifically, we would list the following: (1) petty officials in provincial and local governments (and public sector enterprises) who view bribes as innocuous “speed money”; (2) more senior government officials, who may expect suitcases of money; (3) smugglers who only transact in local currency or dollars; (4) money changers – hundi in Pakistan, hawala in India; (5) real estate developers; (6) criminal gangs; and (7) Bollywood.
What is the goal of demonetisation?
Such a disruptive policy must have significant upsides (and strong political will behind it) to even be considered, let alone implemented. In India and Pakistan’s cases, we would rank the potential positives as follows: (1) It comprehensively documents all financial transactions; (2) It discourages corruption; (3) It encourages more people to enter the financial system; (4) It forces large wholesalers to give up parallel forms of (fiat) money; and (5) It reduces the demand for currency notes.

An Indian policeman asks people to wait patiently in queues to exchange or deposit discontinued currency notes, outside a bank in in New Delhi, India | AP
The primary goal of demonetisation is to document all financial transactions that sustain economic relationships. Comprehensive documentation will help banks become more efficient financial intermediaries. Furthermore, this will specifically help small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) and farmers, who are largely excluded from the banking system. Documentation will create a history of commercial transactions which will allow banks to target this forgotten segment of the country’s population.
Documentation will also help the tax authority move away from regressive (indirect) taxes. This includes sales tax, VAT and other duties, which are priced into most goods and services. Irrespective of how rich a person is, he/she pays the same amount of indirect tax compared to someone who is living hand-to-mouth.
Documentation will also identify those who should be paying income tax, which will make the tax burden fairer.
A final point: if hoarding cash is deemed to be risky and documentation is more comprehensive, the giving and accepting of bribes will definitely fall.
How has India fared?
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has stated that as of November 28, 2016, of the 14 trillion rupee that has been demonetised, 57 per cent has been deposited in bank accounts and 3 per cent has been exchanged for new currency notes. Forty per cent remains in the form of old notes, which is likely to surface as the December deadline looms. It is impressive that the bulk of this converted money has been placed in the banking system (rather than being withdrawn in cash), which should increase bank lending to Indian businesses.
Media outlets and commentators seem to unanimously claim that India’s demonetisation decision was unwise.
The currency already exchanged by the average Indian is predominantly going into bank deposits which nudges the economy towards a more cashless environment.
At this stage, one should make a distinction between the two stages/goals of a demonetisation exercise: one, to reduce currency in circulation and increase documentation by shifting currency notes into the banking system; and two, to penalise the fat cats who hold a large share of this currency.
In our view, the people who have come forward so far are the unintentional holders (the average Indian). This could include the widow whose life savings of 22,000 rupees are converted back into cash (new notes) by repeatedly going to the same bank, because she is constrained by how much money she can exchange on a weekly basis. She is uninterested in having a bank account, and complains bitterly about the inconvenience she has to bear.
Then there are the fat cats. One could be holding as much as 200 million rupees in old notes, and panic has already set in. He first tries to convert into gold and then dollars, but as the premium increases on both these assets, he is forced to seek alternatives. He then gathers a group of trusted people, and gives them small chunks to deposit (as their money) in existing or new bank accounts. As the end-December deadline approaches, and he is still left with uncomfortably large cash balances, he has little choice but to approach the authorities and concede that he possesses ‘black money’, and is willing to pay the penalty to whiten his money.
This implies that India’s black money will largely be surrendered in the second half of December.

Indians stand in a queue to deposit and exchange discontinued currency notes outside a bank in New Delhi, India | AP
End game
So how and when will Modi’s government declare victory? Clearly this has to wait till the fat cats have run out of options as the deadline expires. This could entail the following messages: (1) to boast that the bulk of old currency notes has been converted into bank deposits which will help the private sector; (2) to highlight how much revenue has been generated from the fat cats alone; and (3) announce that this revenue (from the penalty payments) will be earmarked for public spending on infrastructure and social services in the province/district where the money was collected from. This point will seek to strengthen the Social Contract between the government and the people (more later).
So, the key question is not why Modi’s government took this decision but rather why it took this decision now.
Geo political dimension
The global economy is still reeling from Brexit and the incoming Trump administration. It also appears that the unipolar world order is shifting to a multilateral system. As power shifts to Asia, China and India are jostling to shape the future.
Under Premier Xi Jinping, China has embarked on a significant exercise to root out corruption. In our view, the Chinese economy is better documented than India’s which suggests that a proper exercise to tackle corruption cannot be effective without comprehensive documentation. Hence, demonetisation could be viewed as an important first step to tackle corruption and to strengthen the foundations of the Indian economy.
In countries where the writ of law is not binding on the rich and influential, there is a tendency to flagrantly defy the obligation to document financial transactions and pay taxes.
Perhaps current global developments have compelled India’s government to clampdown. In absolute and relative terms, India needs to upgrade its physical infrastructure and clean up its government machinery, if it wants to punch at its global weight. It would also want to ensure there are no known unknowns that can interfere with decision-making. If India wants a seat at the big table, it needs to show it can take charge of its domestic economy.
Although corruption exists in the rich Western countries, the petty corruption that characterises both Pakistan and India is embarrassing.
In countries where the writ of law is not binding on the rich and influential, there is a tendency to flagrantly defy the obligation to document financial transactions and pay taxes. This does not go unnoticed by the less affluent who are not so much envious of the lifestyles of the rich as they are resentful towards them. As the Brexit decision and the US elections have shown, when given a chance to vote, this anger will favour those who make a strong distinction between ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’.
The decision to demonetise the Indian rupees could be the first step in rewriting the Social Contract in India. If the vast majority of people feel their representatives are not delivering, basic rules of social order fall apart as local law enforcement agencies are viewed as corrupt and venal. To reinforce this ‘Contract’ with the people, the government must take steps that will hurt the fat cats.
Hitting people with vast holdings of unaccounted for cash is a good starting point.

Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi's mother Heera Ba Modi (C) exchanges money at a bank in Rysan village | AFP
But the end goal of documentation is not to punish black marketeers but to ensure that everyone contributes to the upkeep of the country. In a sense, it appears the Indian government has taken the first tough step that has been hard on the people. In return, Indians expect their government to deliver a less corrupt government machinery which allows for a tangible improvement in social services.
Only then will it be possible to talk about a new Social Contract, where citizens feel that paying taxes in return for social services is a good deal.
Demonetisation is a political gamble, but one that a country like India had to take. As Asia rises in the global order, Pakistanis should also consider a similar path towards documentation and financial deepening. As discussed in Pakistan’s print media, we agree that focusing on the 5,000 rupee note alone would be far more targeted and much less disruptive compared to India’s experience.

Mushtaq Khan is Chief Economist at Bank Alfalah and holds a PhD from Stanford University.
Danish Hyder is a research associate at Bank Alfalah and holds a degree from Vassar College in New York.
These are the views of the authors and not the bank.